Advanced Analytics: SP+ Ratings and Efficiency Metrics Explained

Analysis · by Rick's Picks Editorial Team

SP+ (Success Rate Plus) ratings measure team efficiency on a per-play basis rather than raw totals, focusing on successful plays that gain meaningful yardage in each situation. Success Rate defines successful plays as 50% of needed yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. Elite offensive SP+ teams show success rates above 47%, explosiveness ratings above 16%, third down conversions above 45%, and red zone touchdown percentages above 65%. Defensive efficiency metrics include opponent success rates below 38%, explosive plays limited to under 12%, and third down defense under 35%. Betting applications use SP+ differentials to predict spreads more accurately than rankings, with 0.1 SP+ difference typically equaling 2-3 points in spread value. Conference adjustments account for schedule strength, with SEC teams facing higher competition baselines and Group of 5 teams requiring adjustment for weaker opposition. SP+ becomes more reliable with larger sample sizes and works best when combined with recruiting talent levels, injury reports, and motivational factors.

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