CFP Quarterfinals and Semifinals: Indiana's March to Perfection Continues

Analysis · by Rick's Picks Editorial Team

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals and semifinals delivered the drama and storylines that make college football the most compelling sport in America. Indiana's dominance reached historic levels, while Miami's improbable run provided the tournament's best underdog story.

Quarterfinals

Rose Bowl: Indiana 38, Alabama 3

This wasn't a game -- it was a coronation. Indiana demolished Alabama in the Rose Bowl, holding the Crimson Tide to just 3 points and 187 total yards. Fernando Mendoza was brilliant, and Indiana's offensive line gave him all day to operate. The 35-point margin was the largest in a CFP quarterfinal.

Our model had Indiana as 10-point favorites, but even we didn't project this level of dominance. Sometimes a team is simply on a different level, and Indiana in the 2025 playoffs was operating in a stratosphere few teams have ever reached.

Cotton Bowl: Miami 24, Ohio State 14

Miami's defense continued its playoff dominance, this time taking down the No. 2 overall seed. Ohio State's offense, which had been historically efficient all season, managed just 14 points against a Miami defense that lived in the backfield. This was the biggest upset of the quarterfinals and ended Ohio State's unbeaten season.

Orange Bowl: Oregon 23, Texas Tech 0

Oregon pitched a shutout against Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, dominating both sides of the ball. The Ducks' defense held the Red Raiders scoreless -- the first shutout in CFP quarterfinal history.

Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34

In the game of the tournament, Ole Miss and Georgia traded haymakers for four quarters. The finish was spectacular: with Georgia driving for a potential game-winning touchdown, a lateral on the final kickoff return hit the pylon, resulting in a safety that gave Ole Miss the victory. It was one of the most dramatic endings in playoff history.

Semifinals

Peach Bowl: Indiana 56, Oregon 22

Indiana's offense reached its peak in the Peach Bowl semifinal. The Hoosiers scored 56 points -- the most in CFP semifinal history -- and became the first team in CFP history to win two playoff games by 28+ points. Mendoza was spectacular, and Indiana's rushing attack added another dimension to an already unstoppable offense.

Fiesta Bowl: Miami 31, Ole Miss 27

Miami completed a dramatic last-minute comeback to beat Ole Miss and punch their ticket to the national championship game. The Hurricanes trailed for most of the fourth quarter before a Carson Beck touchdown pass with under two minutes remaining gave them the lead. Miami had now won four consecutive games as underdogs in the playoff.

Championship Preview: Indiana vs Miami

The stage is set for one of the most compelling national championship matchups in recent memory. Indiana, seeking to complete a 16-0 perfect season and cap the greatest turnaround in college football history, faces a Miami team that has defied every projection to reach this point.

Our model favors Indiana by 7.5 points, but we've learned to respect Miami's defensive ability and clutch gene in the playoff. This game features the Heisman Trophy winner (Mendoza) against a defense that shut down Ohio State and held Texas A&M to 3 points.

A fun note: all four head coaches in the semifinals were assistant coaches for Nick Saban at Alabama between 2007-2021 and were part of National Championship-winning teams. The Saban coaching tree is bearing fruit across the country.

All analysis is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

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