Week 11 Recap: BYU's Lone Blemish, Rivalry Week Appetizers, and Playoff Jockeying

Previews · by Rick's Picks Editorial Team

Week 11 delivered a result that reshaped the Big 12 race, provided appetizers for Rivalry Week, and gave us the data needed to finalize our late-season projections.

BYU's Lone Loss

BYU's unbeaten run ended at Texas Tech, where the Red Raiders dominated in a 29-7 statement victory. This was BYU's only blemish of the regular season, and it set up a fascinating Big 12 Championship rematch between the two programs.

Our model had flagged Texas Tech as a tough out in this spot. Their defensive metrics at home were significantly better than on the road, and BYU's passing attack had shown vulnerability against aggressive pass rushes in previous games. The 29-7 margin was more decisive than we projected, but the direction was correct.

The Playoff Committee's Dilemma

With two weeks remaining before conference championship games, the committee is facing several difficult decisions:

Two Group of 5 teams: For the first time ever, two Group of 5 programs (Tulane and James Madison) are in serious contention for playoff berths. Our model projects both as worthy inclusions based on their efficiency metrics, even if their strength of schedule doesn't match Power 4 contenders.

The Miami-Notre Dame debate: This will become the most controversial selection decision. Both teams have similar records, but Miami holds the head-to-head victory from Week 1. Our model gives Miami the edge, but it's close enough that the committee's subjective evaluation could go either way.

Looking Ahead to Rivalry Week

Next week brings the games that define seasons: Ohio State-Michigan, Alabama-Auburn, Florida-Florida State, and dozens of other rivalry matchups that carry emotions beyond what any model can fully capture.

Our approach to rivalry games is to temper model projections slightly toward the underdog. Historical data shows that rivalry games produce closer results than expected in about 55% of cases. The emotional equalizer is real.

Updated Model Performance

Season-to-date accuracy: 56.1% in tracked games. Our strongest category remains conference road underdogs projected to lose by 7+ points (61.3% accuracy). The weakest has been large favorites in non-conference games (48.7%), where motivation gaps are harder to model.

All analysis is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

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